Looking down the barrel of a cannon: the potential economic costs of HIV/AIDS in Papua New Guinea.

The HIV/AIDS (human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome) epidemiological model for southern Africa appears to fit data available for the Papua New Guinea (PNG) experience to date. Using certain aspects of the southern African experience, we can create some scenarios for the potential economic costs of HIV/AIDS in PNG. The first part of this paper surveys relevant literature that reports the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in southern Africa, primarily in terms of the microeconomic (health system) and macroeconomic (economy-wide) costs. The second part of the paper presents alternative scenarios for PNG at the micro- and macro- levels, both of which are grounded on the southern African experience.